The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 13:22 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
directionDOWN
confidence64%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade76%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%