The call FLAT
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 14:22 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
direction—
confidence60%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE rises ≥1.2% while SPY rises <1.2%, or XLE outperforms SPY
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US inflation rate eases to 3.5% as gasoline prices fall
- The U.S. is set to reinstate a blockade over the Strait of Hormuz
- Gold down as US-Iran tensions reignite oil rally