The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 18:22 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence65%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US President Trump drops 20% Strait of Hormuz fee plan
- Trump scraps threat of 20% fee on Hormuz cargo as US prepares to resume blockade of Iran ports
- Gas prices drive down US inflation - but will it last?
Wrong — XLE +0.5% vs SPY -0.3% — XLE beat SPY by 0.7%