The call FLAT
SPY trades flat-to-slightly-up over 48h
Made 2026-07-15 09:24 · graded in public
Right · score 80%
directionFLAT
confidence56%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes down more than 0.3% from current levels or up more than 0.8%, breaking the 'macro anchor/stable yield' regime
resolves48h
grade80%
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.62% (as of 2026-07-13)
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.40 percentage points (40 bps) (as of 2026-07-14)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.62% (as of 2026-07-13)
- SOFR: 3.60% (as of 2026-07-13)
Correct — SPY moved -0.1% ($752 → $751)