The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-15 10:24 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence59%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE gains on SPY or matches SPY return over the 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump threatens to bomb bridges and power plants unless Iran resumes talks
- Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests he is struggling to end Iran war
- Strait of Hormuz 'faultline' exposes weakness of the US-Iran deal
- U.S. and Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies