The call FLAT
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-15 13:24 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
direction—
confidence64%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM matches or outperforms SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
IWMprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Iran threatens to block more trade routes as US launches fresh strikes
- Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests he is struggling to end Iran war
- Heating oil customers to get compensation after price hikes
- U.S. and Iran Reignite War Over Strait of Hormuz
Wrong — IWM +0.4% vs SPY -0.1% — IWM beat SPY by 0.5%