The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-15 17:25 · graded in public
Wrong · score 21%
direction—
confidence58%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE gains 2%+ while SPY gains less than 1%, or SPY declines while XLE gains
resolves48h
grade21%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Iran threatens to block more trade routes as US launches fresh strikes
- Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests he is struggling to end Iran war
- Oil Prices Tick Higher as U.S. Reinstates Iran Blockade
Wrong — XLE +2.4% vs SPY -0.7% — XLE beat SPY by 3.1%