MSTR outperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-07-15 17:25 · graded in public

Wrong · score 21%

direction—

confidence63%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSTR underperforms SPY or matches SPY's return over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade21%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

MSTRprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Bitcoin nears $65,000 as Fed rate-hike expectations drop
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MSTR — Material Event: Strategy Inc filed 8-K on 2026-07-13 (8-K) — 8-K 0001050446 false 0001050446 2026-07-13 2026-07-13 0001050446 mstr:M1000SeriesAPerpetual…

Wrong — MSTR -3.7% vs SPY -0.7% — MSTR trailed SPY by 3.0%