The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-15 19:24 · graded in public
Wrong · score 20%
directionDOWN
confidence55%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes higher than SPY return over 48h window
resolves48h
grade20%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Iran threatens to block more trade routes as US launches fresh strikes
- EasyJet passengers stuck on tarmac for hours when plane couldn't refuel
- War Risk for Businesses Will Mean Higher Prices No Matter What Happens
Wrong — XLE +2.1% vs SPY -1.4% — XLE beat SPY by 3.5%