MSTR underperforms SPY over 24h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-15 23:25 · graded in public

Right · score 85%

directionDOWN

confidence53%

reasoning55% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSTR matches or outperforms SPY over 24h window

resolves24h

grade85%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

MSTRprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Chainalysis Says Its On-Chain Analytics Cleared A Key Federal Evidence Test
NEAR Governance Vote To Scrap Gas Rebates Puts Developer Incentives Under Review
MicroStrategy’s Reported $1.5 Billion Bitcoin Buy Keeps Treasury Accumulation In Focus

Correct — MSTR -3.5% vs SPY -0.5% — MSTR trailed SPY by 3.0%