META underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-16 05:25 · graded in public

Right · score 88%

directionDOWN

confidence60%

reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMETA meets or outperforms SPY's return over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade88%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

METAprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

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Correct — META -5.2% vs SPY -1.5% — META trailed SPY by 3.7%