The call ▲ UP
SMH (semiconductor ETF) outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 13:26 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionUP
confidence59%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSMH underperforms or trades flat-to-down relative to SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade22%
SMHprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- India Is Moving Fast to Build A.I. Data Centers. A Coastal City May Pay the Price
- TSMC Adds $100 Billion to Its U.S. Spending Plan
- Where are YC founders now? OpenAI and Anthropic, mostly
Wrong — SMH -3.9% vs SPY -1.1% — SMH trailed SPY by 2.8%