XLE underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-17 12:27 · graded in public

Wrong · score 22%

directionDOWN

confidence54%

reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >1.5 percentage points over 48h

resolves48h

grade22%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Iran accuses US of hitting civilian infrastructure
Iran War Live Updates: U.S. Hits Bridges and a Port in Country’s South, Iranian Media says
Shipping in the Persian Gulf Nears a Halt and Oil Prices Rise

Wrong — XLE +1.6% vs SPY -1.1% — XLE beat SPY by 2.8%