The call FLAT
SPY closes within +/- 0.4% of its 2026-07-17 close over 48h
Made 2026-07-17 21:28 · graded in public
Right · score 80%
directionFLAT
confidence59%
reasoning81% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes down 1.0%+ or up 1.5%+ on no new macro catalyst
resolves48h
grade80%
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.37 percentage points (37 bps) (as of 2026-07-17)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.57% (as of 2026-07-16)
- SOFR: 3.62% (as of 2026-07-16)
Correct — SPY moved +0.7% ($743 → $748)