The call ▼ DOWN
BTC closes flat-to-down over 48h, underperforming broad risk-on regime; regulation + tariff uncertainty outweighs macro support in the immediate window.
Made 2026-07-18 16:31 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes up 2%+ over 48h, or closes flat while HY spreads tighten further (sub-270 bps)
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
Bitcoinprimary
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