The call ▲ UP
BTC trades flat-to-slightly-higher over 24h
Made 2026-07-19 17:13 · graded in public
Right · score 77%
directionUP
confidence58%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes down 1%+ or flat-to-down; no new geopolitical liquidation spike occurs but lack of momentum confirms macro stability dominates over headline risk
resolves24h
grade77%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.37 percentage points (37 bps) (as of 2026-07-17)
- VIX: 16.73 (as of 2026-07-16)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.57% (as of 2026-07-16)
- 2Y Treasury Yield: 4.16% (as of 2026-07-16)
Correct — bitcoin moved +1.4% ($64,545 → $65,422)