The call ▲ UP
TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 01:13 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence58%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifTSLA underperforms SPY (closes lower relative to SPY's move) over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
SPYprimaryTSLAvs
What I was reading
- ECB Stays on War Alert Preparing for Next Rate Hike
- Two US troops killed and one missing after Iranian attack in Jordan
- US Says Two Service Members Killed by Iran Strikes in Jordan
Wrong — TSLA -0.5% vs SPY +0.7% — TSLA trailed SPY by 1.2%