The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-20 02:13 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or beats SPY intraday performance
resolves24h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE +0.5% vs SPY -0.2% — XLE beat SPY by 0.6%