The call ▲ UP
BTC flat-to-slight-upside over 24h
Made 2026-07-20 03:13 · graded in public
Right · score 75%
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifFresh wire news of Iranian formal retaliation (military strike on US base or Israel) fails to materialize AND BTC closes flat-to-down by more than 0.5% over the next 24h window
resolves24h
grade75%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
Correct — bitcoin moved +1.0% ($64,763 → $65,417)