The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 06:13 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence59%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY performance over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Russia Batters Kyiv in One of the Largest Missile Assaults of the War
- US and Iran exchange strikes after two US deaths in Jordan attack
- US Strikes Iran to ‘Punish’ It for Attack That Killed 2 Troops
Wrong — XLE +1.4% vs SPY +0.7% — XLE beat SPY by 0.8%