The call ▲ UP
SPY flat-to-slightly-up over 48h. Macro regime anchors; demand destruction signals do not yet force repricing.
Made 2026-07-20 11:13 · graded in public
Right · score 73%
directionUP
confidence60%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes flat or down over 48h, or VIX breaches 19 on new escalation headline
resolves48h
grade73%
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- Ryanair profits drop as Iran war puts off passengers and lifts fuel costs
- U.S. and Iran launch new strikes after 3 U.S. service members are killed
- Oil Markets on Edge as Shipping Dwindles in Gulf
Correct — SPY moved +0.7% ($743 → $748)