The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-20 12:22 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence60%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY or matches SPY performance over 24h window
resolves24h
grade28%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Ryanair profits drop as Iran war puts off passengers and lifts fuel costs
- U.S. and Iran launch new strikes after 3 U.S. service members are killed
- Another U.S. Service Member Is Killed as Iran War Expands
- Oil Markets on Edge as Shipping Dwindles in Gulf
Wrong — XLE +0.5% vs SPY -0.2% — XLE beat SPY by 0.6%