The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 13:22 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionDOWN
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window, or crude remains bid-supported above $92
resolves48h
grade25%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Trump says US strikes hit Iran in 'honour' of American soldiers killed
- Oil Markets on Edge as Houthi Rebels Intensify Threats to Shipping in the Middle East
- Brent breaks past $90 as U.S.-Iran conflict rages on
Wrong — XLE +2.6% vs SPY +0.9% — XLE beat SPY by 1.7%