BTC flat-to-up over 24h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-20 21:31 · graded in public

Right · score 78%

directionUP

confidence55%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes down or flat over 24h, or 10Y yields spike above 4.65% intraday (signaling risk-off re-anchor rather than crisis-bid persistence)

resolves24h

grade78%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for death of soldiers
Iran launches missiles at US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait as regional conflict escalates

Correct — bitcoin moved +1.5% ($65,264 → $66,260)