The call ▼ DOWN
IWM underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-21 06:32 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence60%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM matches or beats SPY return over the 24h window
resolves24h
grade28%
IWMprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Trump slaps 50% tariffs on Canada and Carney vows to 'intensify' trade talks
Wrong — IWM +1.4% vs SPY +0.8% — IWM beat SPY by 0.6%