The call ▼ DOWN
No directional call on IWM or SPY in isolation. TWO-SIDED: IWM faces headwind from Iran-driven energy cost inflation and sticky rates (support underperformance), but small-cap value premium in risk-on regimes and absence of fresh equity shock (no earnings miss, no policy shift) should contain downside. Lean slightly bearish on IWM relative outperformance vs SPY over 24-48h
Made 2026-07-21 07:32 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM outperforms SPY by >0.5% over 48h despite commodity-inflation and rate-sticky regime
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
IWMprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →