IWM underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-07-21 15:32 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

direction—

confidence60%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifIWM outperforms or matches SPY over 48h

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

IWMprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Trump slaps 50% tariffs on Canada and Carney vows to 'intensify' trade talks
US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for deaths of soldiers
Lebanese army says troops deploying in 'pilot zone' after Israeli withdrawal