The call FLAT
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-21 16:33 · graded in public
Right · score 89%
direction
confidence56%
reasoning58% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over 48h; oil stays flat or retreats
resolves48h
grade89%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE +2.4% vs SPY -1.5% — XLE beat SPY by 3.8%