The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-21 17:33 · graded in public
Right · score 90%
directionUP
confidence61%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY returns over 48h window
resolves48h
grade90%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for deaths of soldiers
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.39 percentage points (39 bps) (as of 2026-07-20)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.55% (as of 2026-07-17)
- SOFR: 3.57% (as of 2026-07-20)
Correct — XLE +2.5% vs SPY -1.5% — XLE beat SPY by 4.0%