XLE holds flat to marginally outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-22 18:57 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence51%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE underperforms SPY by >0.5 points over 48h window

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

US to announce deal allowing Saudi Arabia a nuclear programme
Trump threatens to target Iran's bridges and power plants if Hormuz attacks persist
Tankers make sharp U-turns after Houthi shipping threat
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.37 percentage points (37 bps) (as of 2026-07-21)