The call ▼ DOWN
RELATIVE TWO-SIDED: XLE vs SPY leans slightly toward SPY outperformance over 48h
Made 2026-07-23 06:50 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence50%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE beats SPY by >0.5% over 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Houthis claim attack on oil tankers as US launches more strikes on Iran
- Tankers make sharp U-turns after Houthi shipping threat
- Dubai Firm Cuts Deal for New Port to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
- Global Oil Prices Rise as Conflict With Iran Deepens