META underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-29 23:07 · graded in public

Right · score 100%

directionDOWN

confidence53%

reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMETA outperforms or matches SPY over 48h

resolves48h

grade100%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

METAprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Meta shares fall as frustration grows over AI spending plans
META — Insider Trade: Meta Platforms, Inc. filed 4 on 2026-07-29 (FORM 4) — SEC FORM 4 SEC Form 4 FORM 4 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION…

Correct — META -4.9% vs SPY +2.4% — META trailed SPY by 7.3%