The call ▼ DOWN
BTC closes lower over 24h
Made 2026-08-01 16:38 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-up over 24h
resolves24h
gradeopen
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% (as of 2026-07-30)
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.47 percentage points (47 bps) (as of 2026-07-31)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.68% (as of 2026-07-30)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.84 percentage points (284 bps) (as of 2026-07-30)