The call ▲ UP
BTC closes higher over 24h
Made 2026-08-01 21:38 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-down over 24h OR 10Y Treasury yield spikes 10+ bps on Fed hawkishness signal
resolves24h
grade76%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- US Treasury yield curve twist suggests potential Fed rate hike pause
- OpenAI announces its "next major model" Astra by dropping ten previously unsolved math solutions
Correct — bitcoin moved +1.2% ($62,765 → $63,495)