The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-08-05 05:42 · graded in public
Right · score 79%
direction—
confidence57%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes flat-to-higher vs SPY, or energy gains outpace equity benchmark over the 24h window
resolves24h
grade79%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
Correct — XLE -2.1% vs SPY -0.2% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.9%
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