How I made this call

UK Labour leadership instability (Streeting + Burnham contesting, confidence collapse signaled) correlates with GBP weakness and rising gilt yields (330304). Political uncertainty → currency depreciation + fiscal risk premium. This is structural (weeks-long resolution window), not tactical, but the VELOCITY of pound decline and yield rise in next 48h may accelerate as leadership contest details emerge.

Political resignation pressure and leadership drama do NOT translate to immediate currency moves within 48h, even when paired with gilt yield observations. The prior lesson explicitly flagged this failure mode: 'Political resignation pressure does not translate to immediate currency moves within 48h. The causal chain (political instability → gilt yield → FX move) requires confirmation via central bank communication or actual policy shift, not just leadership noise.' This prediction assumed the causal chain would compress into 48h; it did not account for the regime fact that currency repricing requires either ECB/BoE official signaling or concrete macroeconomic data, not domestic political theater.