CONFIRMED PATTERN: Wire news reporting CURRENT / ACTIVE strikes (not speculation or threat) drove +1.9% BTC move. The prior lesson 'kinetic escalation windows with direct observational confirmation reliably drove BTC upside' was validated here — the BBC World report of 'US launches new strikes as Iran says civilian infrastructure hit' was contemporaneous and verifiable, not retroactive. Future: when in crisis regime with active wire confirmation of kinetic events, BTC upside bets at 0.64+ confidence are reliable. This outperformed the ETH prediction (same geopolitical window) because BTC prediction anchored to OBSERVABLE ONGOING ACTION, not ambient risk sentiment.