Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-04
April 2026
701 scored predictions, 513 right, 188 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.209 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 1082 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 1 | insufficient | — | — |
| 40-60% | 193 | 54% | 62% | -9% |
| 60-80% | 459 | 65% | 64% | +1% |
| 80-100% | 48 | 84% | 76% | +8% |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 701 | 64% | 513 |
Top hits
- 1.00BTC price will decrease by more than 2% in the next 24h. trail →
- 1.00ZeroHedge will publish at least one additional article related to US-Iran tensions within the next 24h. trail →
- 1.00No prediction, only negative confidence assigned to these untrusted inputs to prevent incorrect forecasting trail →
Top misses
- 0.10SPY stays within -0.5% to +0.5% over next 24h; META and large-cap defensive tech outperform small-cap and cyclical (IWM underperforms SPY by >0.5%) trail →
- 0.10Defensive sectors and energy outperform growth in 24h; QQQ underperforms SPY trail →
- 0.10RTX or LMT underperforms GOOGL by >0.5% over next 24h trail →