Wrong direction. Prediction called for 'modest weakness' in defense/industrial equity indices over 24h due to NATO capex repricing. However, market data shows: IWM (small-cap, typically defense-heavy) +1.2%, SPY +0.4%, QQQ +0.2%. Defense sector showed resilience, not weakness. The thesis logic about supply constraints was reasonable, but the directional call failed—indices moved up, not down. The 'modest weakness' prediction was contradicted by actual modest strength.