Wrong direction — QQQ showed +1.4% (24h), not >2% intraday spike. Prediction required >2% intraday volatility within 24h timeframe; actual movement was modest and directional, not volatile. VGT data unavailable for cross-confirmation, but QQQ (primary AI sector proxy) failed to meet the >2% threshold. Thesis about Anthropic partnership legitimacy did not catalyze predicted volatility spike.