The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 01:22 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence66%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY price return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- CNBC Daily Open: Mideast tensions on the boil again as U.S., Iran trade strikes
- UAE says Iranian missiles struck tankers in Hormuz, killing and injuring crew
- Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Fee Could Double the Cost of Shipping
Wrong — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%