The call ▲ UP
XLE (energy ETF) outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 02:21 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence64%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- UAE condemns Iran's 'brazen' attack on tankers as US launches fresh strikes
- The U.S. strikes Iran after Trump announces a renewed blockade and tolls in Hormuz
- Trump demands payment to protect Gulf nations from Iranian attacks
Wrong — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%