The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-14 03:22 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence60%
reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes higher than SPY over the 24h window
resolves24h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Fee Could Double the Cost of Shipping
- HY Credit Spread: 2.69 percentage points (269 bps) (as of 2026-07-10)
- CNBC Daily Open: Mideast tensions on the boil again as U.S., Iran trade strikes