The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 16:22 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence64%
reasoning80% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade28%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Gas prices drive down US inflation - but will it last?
- Iran war: Strait of Hormuz tanker strikes raise tensions
Wrong — XLE +1.0% vs SPY +0.2% — XLE beat SPY by 0.8%