The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-15 03:24 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence62%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- 10Y Inflation Breakeven: 2.25% (as of 2026-07-14)
- SOFR: 3.60% (as of 2026-07-13)
- Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests he is struggling to end Iran war
- Heating oil customers to get compensation after price hikes