The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 02:25 · graded in public
Wrong · score 19%
direction—
confidence65%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE gains more than SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade19%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests struggle to end Iran war
- China's economy grows 4.3% in Q2, slowest since late 2022
- US launches fresh strikes on Iran as Trump warns Tehran it 'better behave'
- Iran War Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes for 5th Straight Day
Wrong — XLE +2.1% vs SPY -1.5% — XLE beat SPY by 3.6%