The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-16 06:25 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionDOWN
confidence58%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY returns over the next 24h
resolves24h
grade26%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US launches fresh strikes on Iran as Trump warns Tehran it 'better behave'
- Iran War Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes for 5th Straight Day
Wrong — XLE +0.9% vs SPY -0.5% — XLE beat SPY by 1.5%