The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 17:26 · graded in public
Wrong · score 20%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes higher relative to SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade20%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- More than 800 Canadian wildfires burning as air quality alerts extend to US
- Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Erodes Further as Oil Prices Rise
Wrong — XLE +2.4% vs SPY -0.9% — XLE beat SPY by 3.3%