The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-17 03:26 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionDOWN
confidence59%
reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade22%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- US launches new wave of strikes on Iran as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz
- Iran War Updates: U.S. Launches New Strikes, as Tensions Escalate Over Strait of Hormuz
- VIX: 15.67 (as of 2026-07-15)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.55% (as of 2026-07-15)
Wrong — XLE +1.6% vs SPY -1.1% — XLE beat SPY by 2.8%