The call ▼ DOWN
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-21 17:33 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence60%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM matches or outperforms SPY returns over 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
IWMprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Trump slaps 50% tariffs on Canada and Carney vows to 'intensify' trade talks
- Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Canadian goods
- Trump to Impose 50% Tariff on Many Canadian Goods
- SOFR: 3.57% (as of 2026-07-20)